Improving Public Finance Management in Uzbekistan: An ARDL Analysis of the Impact of GDP, Inflation, and Unemployment on the Budget Deficit
Keywords:
Public Finance Management; Budget Deficit; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Inflation; Unemployment; ARDL Model; Macroeconomic Determinants; UzbekistanAbstract
Effective public finance management is one of the essential components that may guarantee long-term economic growth and budgetary sustainability. In recent years, Uzbekistan has taken a number of steps to improve fiscal transparency, improve budget management, and ensure macroeconomic stability. The research paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to analyze the economic growth (GDP), inflation, and unemployment rate affect to the budget deficit of Uzbekistan between 2001 and 2024 years. The acquired empirical results demonstrate that the GDP has the statistically significant negative influence on the budget deficit implying that the expansion of the economy undermines the fiscal sustainability. The budget deficit is positively and statistically significant impacted by the rates of unemployment and inflation. The study's results provide helpful recommendations for improving public finance management and ensuring Uzbekistan's long-term fiscal success.tashkil etishga imkon berishini ko‘rsatadi.
References
Agnello, L. and Sousa, R. (2009). The determinants of public deficit volatility . ECB Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (ECB). Available from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/153476/1/ecbwp1042.pdf [Accessed 19 April 2026].
Arif, A. and Hussain, M. (2018). The role of governance and political institutions for budget deficit for low and high income countries : a panel data analysis. . European Research Studies Journal, 21 (3), 357–366. Available from https://doi.org/11082976 [Accessed 18 April 2026].
Bayar, A. and Smeets, B. (2009). Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union. SSRN Electronic Journal. Available from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1379604.
Javid, A., Arif, U. and Arif, A. (2011). Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility in Selected Asian Countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 50 (4), 649–662. Available from https://www.jstor.org/stable/23617726.
LexUZ. (2024). PF-100-сон 10.07.2024. Budjet mablagʻlaridan foydalanish ustidan moliyaviy nazoratni kuchaytirish boʻyicha qoʻshimcha chora-tadbirlar toʻgʻrisida. Lex.uz. Available from https://lex.uz/docs/-7015258 [Accessed 18 April 2026].
Murwirapachena, G., Maredza, A. and Choga, I. (2013). The Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 4 (13), 561–569. Available from https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n13p561 [Accessed 20 April 2026].
Safdar, F. and Padda, H. (2017). Impact of Institutions on Budget Deficit: The Case of Pakistan. NUML International Journal of Business & Management, 12 (1), 2410–5392. Available from https://www.numl.edu.pk/journals/subjects/1561545083Volume%2012%20(1)%20Article-6.PDF [Accessed 19 April 2026].
Shrestha, N. (2020). Detecting Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 8 (2), 39–42. Available from https://doi.org/10.12691/ajams-8-2-1.
